How to transform autocracy to democracy: Women's rights are primary

From Margaret Atwood's Handmaid's Tale to the Rivera Sun Ari Ara series and in many more fictional examples, we come across the idea that women who have rights tend to enter into social struggle more and likely more effectively. 

In reality, researcher Susanne Schauftenaar (2017) finds that fiction to be fact, in general, citing previous research in her study of women's rights as a factor in the onset of civil society struggle. The previous examinations focused largely on outbreak of violent insurgency; she included nonviolent struggle, using data from the groundbreaking Chenoweth and Stephan study that produced the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO) data set. 

Indeed, she found, great rights for women tended to be associated with more likelihood of the launch of a nonviolent campaign to achieve a maximal goal--overthrowing an autocrat, driving a foreign armed forces out, or seceding and founding a new sovereign nation.

Overthrowing an aspiring autocrat is going to be more often associated with a country with greater rights for women. Women's rights are drivers toward freedom for all.

References

Schaftenaar, S. (2017). How (wo)men rebel. Journal of Peace Research, 54(6), 762–776. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343317722699

How to transform autocracy to democracy: Respect all identities in how you frame your messaging

In her 2023 analysis of the case of Thailand campaigns to rise up against the brutal defense of the Thai monarchy, researcher Janjira Sombatpoonsiri found a clear correlation between frames that seemed to inflame and the likelihood of mass countervailing civil society campaigns. Carefully crafting messaging to avoid the appearance of attacking another ethnicity, religion, political party, or cultural identity group is a crucial factor for any campaign hoping to dislodge an autocrat of any stripe.

References

Sombatpoonsiri, J. (2023). “A lot of people still love and worship the monarchy”: How polarizing frames trigger countermobilization in Thailand. Journal of Peace Research, 60(1), 88–106. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221142932

How to transform autocracy to democracy: Build teams

Looking at the history of nonviolent campaigns we often presume a charismatic leader is enough; once we have our golden guy it's a done deal. There are two problems with that assumption. 

One, some of the most successful takedown campaigns in history have no charismatic leader. 

Two, a charismatic leader is not an expert at everything; there must be experts leading the necessary work teams in order to accelerate the pace of gain and move it swiftly to victory. Assessing is crucial and assessing about who is expert enough to assess is the work before the work. Identify team leaders: 

·       adaptive management, that is, evaluating steps taken and adjusting to improve next steps

·       logistics--event planners, team support and care

·       finances and fundraising, keeping the organization "street legal"

·       media--develop contacts and strategies, when to broadcast, when to narrowcast, how to incentivize best coverage

·       legal--organize both civil (lawsuit) and criminal (defending nonviolent resisters, develop stable of both lawyers and germane expert witnesses

Develop teams as needed and do not miss out on expertise that sometimes is modest and not visible. Inquire, negotiate, and coordinate. Teams can both bond--almost become foxhole buddies--and bridge--connect between and amongst teams. New campaign members can self-direct toward an existing team or be recruited once a skill-set inventory mechanism indicates valued expertise.

How to transform autocracy to democracy: Inoculate against violent flanks

Many campaigns put little focus on preventing outbreaks of violence or the sorts of actions that the public would generally classify as violent. Therefore, they are susceptible to random acts of violence or unsanctioned property destruction or screaming matches. When the image of a campaign is one likely to snap from peaceful to unpredictable skirmishes, such as someone throwing a soda can at a cop, it tends to disincentivize the average observer who might otherwise be open to joining the next action.

All the research suggests that numbers matter a great deal. Old tired theories such as the Che Guevara triggering notion--a violent action done at the right time can trigger the revolution--are generally ahistorical and unhelpful. Empirical research indicates that if just a small percentage of the population can participate in civil resistance on a sustained basis--roughly 3.5-4 percent--the campaign will succeed. 

When violent flanks alienate far more than they attract, it is clear that the effective campaigns will do all possible to set themselves up to resist and even repel violent actors. 

When some organizers, who often mean well, say that we shouldn't reject anyone who is "on our side" and "wants the same thing" no matter what they do to try to get it, the smart organizer will help them understand that a so-called "diversity of tactics" will diminish the movement, alienating the general populace, and render the campaign far less effective. When someone who is generally sympathetic to a campaign turns on their tv and sees pepperspray, instances of physical clash, and even rubber bullets, they are far less likely to come into the next one.

Indeed, every decision made by the campaign should be run through the filtering question, "How will this affect recruitment?" There may well be some circumstances that are more crucial than recruitment numbers, but that prioritization should be accepted by the organizers and at least considered in deliberative discussions.

The recommended components of preventing the harm inflicted by the actions of a violent flank: 

·       Decide on a strict nonviolence code of conduct.

·       Form a peace team dedicated to nonviolently enforcing that nonviolent code.

·       Publicize that each event will be nonviolent (family-friendly, peaceful).

·       Announce that the peace team is there to remind everyone of the code of conduct.

·       Liaise with media and law enforcement to reinforce the image of the campaign as absolutely nonviolent.

·       If there are dedicated groups insisting on a diversity of tactics, meet with them. Negotiate, insisting on mutual respect as a baseline, and let them know you will not renounce them in general unless they come into your event and disrupt it, at which point you will indeed denounce them and let everyone know they are not part of the campaign. Let them know they are quite welcome to your events when they can abide by your code of conduct. Let them know they may riot on a different day or on the other side of town and you will make no comment, only reserving that for any time when they act out in your event. This works. What does not work are philosophical arguments, or even strategy arguments. Focus on mutual respect and clear boundaries with predictable outcomes.

How to transform autocracy to democracy: Be transparent

There are so many reasons for any campaign to be as transparent as possible (but not more so--if Anita and her child Jorge are living in sanctuary in your weekend woodlands cabin to keep them safe from ICE you are obviously not going to be transparent about that): 

·       Being forthright with media, opponents, law enforcement, and others is the only path to trust.

·       Being honest about the meta-goal (e.g., ending racism, transforming the government, seeing the autocrat resign) makes it harder to accuse a campaign of something else, of just promoting smaller goals to convert to oppressive communism or to seize power to make fortunes.

·       Being truthful can reduce the number of times the armed agents of the state commit violence against members of the campaign because the combination of openness and nonviolent conduct even in the face of violent oppression opens a sympathy gap more and more in favor of the campaign.

This commitment to truth, trust, honesty, and transparency enhances the reputation of the campaign even as it erodes how the populace views the aspiring autocrat. This can affect power dynamics and even help lead to a willingness to negotiate, especially as the sympathy gap helps a burgeoning recruitment to both supporting ranks and participating numbers.

How to transform autocracy to democracy: Decide how to decide and stick with it

One of the most dysfunctional approaches to campaign success is revisiting basic functional decisions again and again, relitigating tired arguments for one method or another, so that membership gets confused, stays confused, and becomes increasingly alienated and begins to drop out. 

Make this decision about decision-making early on, stick with it, and do not entertain amendments or revisions to it for quite some time.

Of course, this means the relatively small group of original organizers should be quite deliberate and consensus-driven (even if consensus is not the final choice of making decisions as the campaign grows). Deciding without such deliberations can result in a capricious decision that leads to internal strife and movement stagnation.

Deliberate, employ curiosity about alternatives, visualize ranges of presenting problems, barriers both necessary and unnecessary, and outcomes that propel or inhibit your campaign. Once serious consideration has been given to all suggested modes, choose on and commit. That will save grief and time and keep the focus where it belongs: solutionary tracks.

How to transform autocracy to democracy: Liaise with everyone

There are so many reasons to be in regular communication with all parties from the entire spectrum of players in the realm of your campaign: 

·       Be in dialog with potential coalitional partners to work on overcoming any barriers to building your coalition (John, we are hosting a weekly lunch at the church on 9th Street, for all coalition partners and potential partners. We would value you or someone you can send at these conversations. Your views are very important to us.)

·       Liaise with police at every level--local, state, federal--in order to build trust by demonstrating transparency, even in the aftermath of not being transparent at times (Commander, we didn't let you know ahead of time that we were going to occupy the hearing room because you naturally would be duty-bound to prevent us from that. Please know that nothing we did was in any spirit of disrespect toward you or your officers. This was a strategic move, not meant to embarrass your authority in any way. I hope you noticed that we offered a respectful reference to your officers in our publicity.)

·       Don't simply send out press releases. Follow up and get to know editors, reporters, photographers, and videographers personally. Ask questions in those conversations (Hi Deborah, can you give me some guidance from your perspective as editor on best practices when working with you? I noticed that you sent a crew to cover our demonstration two weeks ago, but not anyone for our demonstration yesterday. What am I missing and what advice can you offer?)

·       Stay in talks with deciders and influencers (Joyce, as the Congresswoman's Chief of Staff, can you help us understand what we can do to help the Congresswoman feel empowered to act to prevent the President from imposing his diktats that are hurting so many, including the Congresswoman's own constituents?)

Listen to everyone. When they stop talking to you, ask why. Your campaign is one of action and even deeper than that is a learning project done by a learning community.

How to transform autocracy to democracy: Nonviolent code of conduct

Whether you are stopping an aspiring autocrat from taking power or bringing down an autocrat already in power, nonviolence works better than all alternatives--more often and with far fewer costs than violence and, of course, better than apathy or fantasizing, no matter how fervent.

Part of the key to creating a movement that sticks to nonviolent conduct is to develop a code of conduct, preferably one that can be printed up and carried by all participants. Gandhi had one, Martin Luther King Jr and the Civil Rights movement had theirs, and so have other successful nonviolent movements. 

I personally feel the Einstein adage applies best: Make it as simple as possible, but not simpler. In other words, there really isn't any need for an elaborate code covering all possible permutations of scenarios, so it should be simpler than that. However, a code that is too simple may be seen as, well, simplistic. Either problem can make it seem unrealistic.

Once your relatively small original core leadership agrees on the code of conduct, it may used as a filter for joining the movement, whether for individuals or for groups. Here is one sample: 

Code of conduct

·       We will harm no one physically

·       We will treat all with respect

·       We will express no hatred for any person 

·       If we are attacked, we will respond only with nonviolence

signed_______________________

Some codes of conduct include points that deal with property destruction and some do not. Some codes of conduct include points that deal with scrupulously following the law and some don't. Some include faith-based points, some include loyalty to leadership, and some include state of mind promises. The important job of the code of conduct is that it starts as a promise and develops into a tool to defend participants in the media, to armed agents of the state, in courts, and to their neighbors. Carrying a signed copy on your person is a surprisingly valuable tool in your nonviolent toolkit.

How to transform autocracy to democracy: Multiple prongs

Problem: Your country has been a democracy and is now facing an aspiring autocrat backed by a huge team of clever advisers and an entire political party. 

Start by understanding that one tactic will not stop him. Indeed, there are hundreds. 

Reverend James Lawson, named by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr as one of the architects of the US civil rights movement, said (paraphrase): Show me a winning campaign and I'll show you one that is multipronged, intercultural, and intergenerational.

What did the Rev mean by multipronged? There are many, but mostly what he meant was that one action, one tactic, one repeated action is essentially a pathetic one-trick pony. 

In an institute bearing his name, African American journalist Deb Mathis echoed the Rev. She pointed out in her years in a newsroom as an editor, she would frequently assign a reporter to cover a new and promising campaign, but if they did the same thing the next time, she stopped assigning anyone to cover it. 

Indeed, when a campaign has news on the street, in elected officials' offices, in the courtroom, in houses of worship, in the leadership circles of unions, and even in the lives of celebrities, that multipronged effort raises the campaign into the minds of many more people.

Don't get stuck with one exciting tactic that swiftly devolves into crashing boredom. 

Transformative psychology #15: Ubuntu, adoption, appropriation

Ubuntu is African in origin but universal in potential application. 

That brings up an issue with which I've struggled over the years. What is a culture featuring best practices learned from any and all sources versus cultural appropriation? To me, it is a bit like writing. Cite our sources! Give credit. Acknowledge. I wore a braid for many years (until I broke my wrist and was unable to braid) and I always credited my Anishinaabe friends whose braids I loved. That's a little thing.

The other factor is to not only acknowledge cultural origins, but to acknowledge privilege and relative lack of cultural depth. If I love Aretha Franklin I'm only ethically correct, in my view, if I do so acknowledging that I can't possibly understand the full measure, the authentic depth, of the African American experience or roots of gospel fusion. 

This is all easy and natural for those who study and practice conflict transformation because at the heart of our field is respect--for others and for ourselves. When that is a higher value than feeling superior to others, we lean into our own variant of ubuntu.

Nigerian philosopher Philip Ogo Ujomu describes ubuntu as " a set of human values central among which are reciprocity, the common good, peaceful relations, an emphasis on human dignity and the value of human life, as well as consensus, tolerance, and mutual respect" (2024, pp. 53-54). He further suggests that, with all the external contestation for development of Africa, decisions about that should not only rest with Africans but should be guided by reliance on the values of ubuntu as a necessary endogenous filter in such decision-making.

In many ways, then, although development of African resources--both human and natural--by external parties during the colonial era and beyond has been far more predatory than collaborative, this school of thought and proposed reliance on ubuntu would bring back the sovereign agency to indigenous Africans to the extent ubuntu is in fact made crucial in such decisions. Struggling to foreground ubuntu might indeed be the most crucial factor in remediating the extractive approach associated with external parties from the export of slaves to the dark history of conflict diamonds and other profoundly oppressive practices. Basing decisions on ethics such as mutual respect changes the psychological foundations of conversations amongst Africans and between Africans and external parties. It would be one of the greatest social evolutionary steps in the history of humankind. Impossible? It would be wise to heed Henry David Thoreau in this inquiry, who said that we should aim high because almost certainly we will never achieve more than what we aim to.

References

Ujomu, P. O. (2024). ‘Ubuntu’ African Philosophy or ‘Ubuntu’ as a Philosophy for Africa? Philosophical Alternatives Journal / Filosofski Alternativi, 33(5), 53–90. https://doi-org.proxy.lib.pdx.edu/10.58945/UYHB1683