Votes are counted, and when elections are rigorously monitored, those counts are generally trusted, though that trust has broken down to some degree in countries like the US that have been increasingly afflicted with gaslighting politicians seemingly unembarrassed to blatantly lie.
Polls are less trusted, even if we trust their honesty.
In the midst of all this uncertainty, gathering a crowd to express a political opinion is a literal demonstration that, at the least, a viewable number of people hold a viewpoint. Gathering people who may or may not have been polled, and gathering them at a time chosen by the organizers rather than by election law or officials, is a snapshot of the popularity of a viewpoint.
What does a demonstration do?
· It shows officials an actual body count of people who have a strong enough opinion to leave their homes to gather in demonstration.
· It affords an opportunity for the community to assess its own numbers.
· It gives media a chance to report on the mood of the people, in description, photo, video, and participant interviews.
Daniel Hunter is a gifted community organizer, and his advice is quite clear: Do not call a demonstration to flex political muscles you do not have. Do not hold a demonstration until you can indeed demonstrate enough strength so that the deciders and influencers want to negotiate with you.
To Daniel's expert advice I would add that small gatherings, such as vigils, are different. Organizing such gatherings would not involve a media release, just outreach to known members of the community on a more private basis. These smaller gatherings are still demonstrations, but they give the organizers and the community a sense of the strength of views and commitment, and can help organizers adapt the message to try again, until some strength and clarity begins to show signs of potential power.
At that point, organizers should have been working to build a coalition that can support a clear and unified message around a single issue, not a menu of issues. People will more likely show up around one commonly held idea, not a laundry list that may include one item that discourages a number of potential demonstrators and another item on the list that may alienate another grouping of potential participants.
In short, wait until you can demonstrate true people power before notifying media and the deciders and influencers that you will hold that demonstration. Show that power and expect outreach in one form or another that is going to be an invitation to negotiate toward your goal.
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